我国居民储蓄与GDP增长相关性分析

The Correlative Analysis of China's Resident Saving and Economic Growth

许多研究认为东亚经济增长奇迹的关键原因是这些国家的高储蓄率。本文在对 1 978年以来中国经济运行的有关数据进行统计分析时发现 ,在中国的居民储蓄率与 GDP增长率之间并不存在正相关关系 ,事实上 ,与 GDP同向变动的应是居民储蓄额 ,并且我们发现要保证储蓄与经济增长之间的正相关关系也需要满足一些特殊条件 :居民收入必须不断增长、储蓄必须要能顺利地转化为投资。因此本文提出在政策上应谨慎看待我国居民储蓄与 GDP增长之间的正相关关系。

Some researches take the high rate of domestic saving as the key reason for east Asia's fast economic growth. Through analyzing china's economic data from 1978, this paper finds that there is no positive correlation between the resident saving rate and the GDP growth rate. In fact it is the resident saving that corresponds to the variety of GDP growth. This paper holds that it must be special condition to maintain the positive correlation between the saving and GDP growth. That means the resident incoming must keep continual increase and the saving must be successfully transformed into investment. Hence this paper proposes that we should be cautious in policy to treat the positive correlation between the resident saving and the GDP growth.