复杂性与社会经济系统建模

The Complexity and the Modeling of Social-economic Systems

复杂性是当前学术研究中的一个热点，由于缺乏严格的形式化理论，至今尚未形成统一的定义。文章从系统理论的处理技术的发展过程着手，直面社会经济系统的复杂现象，探讨了目前处理复杂性的可能手段和不足之处，认为理论和现实之间的矛盾主要来自如何应对系统的结构性变迁问题。经典的系统理论致力于特定时刻系统与边界的划分，通过对各部分之间因果逻辑关系的分析，建立的动态系统模型无法克服牛顿还原论的影响。只有从方法论和认知论的高度，重新审视我们的理论范式；关注进化理论和还原论方法的结合，并借助现代计算机的强大运算能力，似乎是一条可资借鉴的道路。

Many researchers now focus on the theory of complexity, which still does not have a uniform definition for its lack of formalization. In this paper, we start to discuss this topic from the point of view of methodology, and face to the complexity of social-economic system. Skills and faultiness are analyzed in detail. Conflicts stem from how to deal with the structural change of the system. In traditional system theory, it is difficult to get rid of the influence of mechanical model by dividing the system into subsystems from the definition of system and its environment. This kind of analysis on the cause and effect is based on the division of structure and functionality, which needs to be changed from the methodology level. It may lead to an appreciative theory to combine the reductive method with the evolutionary theory. Computer helps a lot in this kind of researches.