双轨制度下中国农户粮食供给反应分析

An analysis of China farmers grain supply impact under the duel price system

粮食的定购价格和数量是否影响粮食供给 ,学术界对此存在着相互对立的观点。本项研究试图从理论和实证两个方面对此问题做进一步分析 ,本文利用边际理论、局部调整模型和价格预期理论建立了双轨制度下三种不同的供给反应模型。实证分析表明 ,定购数量和定购价格都对粮食产出产生显著影响 ,推进粮食购销市场化改革是充分发挥各地比较优势的重要条件。

There are diametrically opposed views in academic circles on the impacts of the price and quantity regarding the fixed quotas for purchasing grain on grain supply.This study attempts to make a further analysis both theoretically and empirically.In this article three different models of supply respose to the dual price system are developed based on marginal theory,partial regulation model and the theory of price expectation.The empirical analysis shows that both the quantity and the price of the fixed quotas for purchasing grain make a notable impact on grain output and the market-oriented reform of grain purchase and marketing is the important condition to give full play to the local comparative advantage.