安全综合评价中的组合赋权和变权

INDICES COMBINATION AND VARIETY WEIGHT OF COMPREHENSIVE SAFETY ASSESSMENT

针对目前安全综合评价中的权值确定方法 ,给出了组合赋权法和变权方法。组合赋权是主观赋权和客观赋权的组合。首先对评价指标进行主、客观赋权 ,并用 Spearman等级相关系数判断主、客观赋权方法之间的相关程度 ,求出主、客观方法相关程度的最大值 ,依此为基础 ,计算 Spearman等级相关系数的构成向量和组合权值。安全综合评价通常涉及多指标 ,采用常权有可能使综合评价失去客观公正性 ,变权反映了指标的本质属性 ,变权向量是指标常权向量和状态变权向量的 Hardarmand乘积 ,据此可给出综合评价中的变权公式。最后 ,以煤矿低瓦斯矿井采面瓦斯状态的危险度综合评价为例进行说明。权值确定方法的完善 ,使得安全综合评价更加实用。

As a rule, indices weight is an important parameter in comprehensive safety assessment, whose accuracy may directly affect the results of safety assessment. In order to improve its accuracy, an integrated weight method has been used which tends to join the subjective weight and the objective weight together. The present paper has analyzed the weight calculation methods. The authors first of all have calculated the indices subjective weight and objective weight by using the methods initiated by Delphi, AHP, EVM,et al. The common ground taken by these methods is the basis of Spearman correlative rating coefficients, whose construction vector can be applied to calculating the indices combination weight. In the process of comprehensive safety assessment, more and more indices are involved and constant weight of such indices can be accepted, which helps to yield correct assessment results. As a result a formula for the weight variety has been put forward, which is the Hardarmard product of the vectors of indices constant weights and indices stations variety weights. Finally the paper has presented some constraint conditions to satisfy weight variety's applications, thus making the comprehensive safety assessment more scientific and reasonable. In addition, an example of the potential danger with the methane station on the coal storing surface is given to demonstrate the availability of the above method.