摘要
本文讨论了有关能源的思想观念的演变。20年前当几位作者开始携手合作研究能源时,人们一般是以发展的眼光、从供应方的角度来考虑能源问题,将注意力集中到消费趋势以及如何扩大供给以满足不断增长的需求上。这种方法在能源利用的环境影响、安全性和公平合理性方面的研究局限深深地困扰着他们。例如,大约有20亿人口经济条件有限,买不起现代能源,这严重限制了他们生活水平的提高。此外,能源还是造成环境问题的重要因素,其中包括室内空气污染、城市空气污染、酸化和全球气候变暖等。笔者认为,应当树立新的能源供给观念,使能源的供给方式有助于解决这些严重问题。笔者主张,能源必须成为推进可持续发展——经济上可行、以需要为导向、自力更生的以及无损于环境的发展——的工具,而且,应当将研究重点放在能源的终端用途上和能源供应的服务上。有助于实现可持续发展目标的能源技术方案也在本文进行了讨论。文中强调了制订和运用新型能源技术解决方案的必要性。笔者以巴西乙醇的利用为例,阐述了使发展中国家避免重复工业化国家所犯错误而在技术上实现跨越式发展的可能性。文中还重点介绍了在发展中国家引进先进技术过程中外国直接投资可能起到的作用,阐述了农村能源的近期和远期战略。最后,介绍了促进能源系统的发展,使之与可持续发展的步调一致并且支持可持续发展的相关政策。
The evolution of thinking about energy is discussed. When the authors began collaborating 20 years ago, energy was typically considered from a growth-oriented, supply-side perspective, with a focus on consumption trends and how to expand supplies to meet rising demand. They were deeply troubled by the environmental, security and equity implications of that approach. For instance, about two billion people lack access to affordable modern energy, seriously limiting their opportunities for a better life. And energy is a significant contributor to environmental problems, including indoor air pollution, urban air pollution, acidification, and global warming. The authors saw the need to evolve a different perspective in which energy is provided in ways that help solve such serious problems. They argued that energy must become an instrument for advancing sustainable development—economically viable, need-oriented, self-reliant and environmentally sound development—and that the focus should be on the end uses of energy and the services that energy provides. Energy technological options that can help meet sustainable development goals are discussed. The necessity of developing and employing innovative technological solutions is stressed. The possibilities of technological leap-frogging that could enable developing countries to avoid repeating the mistakes of the industrialized countries is illustrated with a discussion of ethanol in Brazil. The role foreign direct investment might play in bringing advanced technologies to developing countries is highlighted. Near- and long-term strategies for rural energy are discussed. Finally, policy issues are considered for evolving the energy system so that it will be consistent with and supportive of sustainable development.
