地震时空影响域、复发间隔和有效孕震时间

Earthquake-affeted Time-space Domain,Recurrence Interval and Effective Preparation Time of Earthuqakes

研究表明 ,地震的时空影响域 (影响范围 )在t(时间 ) r(距离 )坐标上具有双曲线型的边界曲线 ,t=0时的最大影响半径为r0 ,r=0时的最大影响时间 (即原地复发间隔 )为t0 。根据我国华北、西北、青藏和西南等地区后继地震相对于先发地震的时、距分布状况 ,经优化拟合和统计分析 ,确定了地震时空影响域的优化边界曲线及 90 %置信度边界曲线。以三维 (时间 -距离 -震级 )的“地震时空影响域”概念取代一维 (时间 )或二维 (时间 -震级 )的“复发间隔”概念 ,为认识地震活动涨落起伏的实质、估计潜在震源的有效孕震时间和改进地震的中长期预测提供了新的思路。

The study shows that earthquake|affected time|space domain(ETSD),i.e.a time|space range in which the occurrence of posterior earthquakes are restricted,has a hyperbolic margin curve on %t%(time)|%r%(distance) coordinates,which has the maximum affected radius %r-0% at %t=0% and the maximum influence time %t-0% (i.e.the recurrence interval of earthquakes at same site)at %r=0%.Based on the time|distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to prior ones in the regions of North China,Northwest China,Qinghai|Xiang plateau and Southwest China,the optimized and 90%|confidence|level margin curves are estimated using the optimization fitting and statistic analysis methods.It is indicated that the concept and method of ETSD with 3|dimension (time|distance|magnitudes)instead of those of !recurrence interval' with 1|dimension(time)or 2|dimension (time|magnitude)provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities,estimating the effective earthquake|preparation time of potential hypocenters,and therefore improving the medium| and long|term prediction of strong earthquakes.