中国典型地区强震的地震学综合预测指标筛选及其在西南地区的检验

Screening of Seismological Integrated Prediction Indexes on Strong Earthquakes in Chinese Typical Area and Its Testing in the Southwest China Area

地震学定量综合预报方法 (SeismologicalQuantitativeIntegratedPredictionMethod ,简称SQIP方法 )是笔者等在“九五”攻关研究项目中使用华北地区资料和震例自行研制的一种基于多项地震学参数的综合预测方法。本文依据该方法的指标筛选法及规则 ,对中国大陆西南、华北、新疆 3个地区 7级以上强震进行了研究 ,提取了相应的强震地震学综合预测指标 ,并由此给出适用于中国大陆典型地区的强地震SQIP预测方法。同时在西南地区进行了该方法的时空扫描检验。

The Seismological Quantitative Integrated Prediction Method (abbreviated as SQIP) is a integrated prediction method based on several seismologic parameters, it is studied out by using the data and earthquakes of the North China. According to the method of screening indexes and the rule, this paper studied the strong earthquakes (M S≥7) occurred in the Southwest China, the North China and Xinjiang areas, abstracted the corresponding seismology integrated prediction indexes of strong earthquake and give out a method of seismology integrated prediction of strong earthquake. In the meanwhile, the time-space scanning test results of Southwest area are given out too.