成都市居民未来生活用水量预测模型的选择

Selection of Forecast Model for Water Consumption of Chengdu's Residents in the Future

以成都市居民生活用水量为背景 ,采用不同的预测方法进行了实例计算 ,分析比较了多个模型的预测精度 ,并在此基础上确定了适合成都市居民生活用水量变化特征的新的预测模型──自组织模型。研究结果表明 ,自组织方法 (GMDH)是强有力的建模方法 ,是一种有效的预测手段。

Based on Chengdu's residents' water consumption data, different procedures are used for prediction of residents' water consumption in the future. The forecast precision of different procedures are compared and analyzed. The model-GMDH is determined finally to be a powerful and effective model which is suited to the change of Chengdu's residents' water consumption.