中国投资波动实证研究

Positive Research on Investment Fluctuation of China

中国投资波动实证研究所用考察指标为国有经济固定资产投资。按照“谷 -谷”法划分 ,1 95 3— 1 999年的 4 7年中 ,投资波动共呈现出 9个周期。改革前后投资波动状态特征悬殊 ,波动是由剧烈转向平缓。投资波动与经济波动高度相关 ,经济波动深受投资波动的影响 ,但是 ,投资波动剧烈程度远远高于经济波动。

The positive research on investment flulctuation of China takes the fixed asset investment of state-owned enterprise as main indicator.According to the method of 'Valley to Valley',the investment fluctuation appears 9 cycles during the 47 years from 1953 to 1999.There are great differences in the features of investment fluctuation before and after the reform.The fluctuation changes from acuteness to smoothness.The investment fluctuation is highly related to economic fluctuation,and economic fluctuation is deeply affected by investment fluctuation.However,the range of investment fluctuation is far bigger than economic fluctuations.