中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究

The Characteristics of “Club Convergence” of China's Economic Growth and Its Cause

本文以经济增长文献中有关收敛性理论为基础 ,对中国自建国以来 ,特别是 1 978年改革开放以来 ,省际间的经济增长差异进行实证分析。本文认为中国地区间的经济增长 ,不仅存在着显著的“俱乐部收敛”(clubconvergence)特征 ,即按东中西划分的区域内部人均产出具有明显的聚集现象 ;而且存在着条件收敛 (conditionalconvergence)的特征 ,即在具有相同的人力资本、市场开放度等结构特征的经济地区间存在着一定的增长收敛趋势。本文实证分析的结果还显示 ,各地区间工业化水平的差异和产业结构的变动对增长收敛性构成显著的影响。

Based on the convergence theory implicated in economic growth literature, this paper carries out an empirical analysis of interprovincial growth variance across provinces in China since 1949, especially since 1978.Our results show that not only the club convergence has been obviously exhibited, that is, the output per capita congregates within the east, middle and west districts respectively; but also the conditional convergence has been identified, that is, given the same level of human capital, market openness and other factors the economic provinces have demonstrated a certain growth convergence. The outcome of the paper also shows that the variance of the industrialization among provinces affects the growth convergence significantly.