震后趋势决策支持系统PTDSS

POST-EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

介绍了作者研制的“震后趋势决策支持系统PTDSS”的构成及预报效果 .该系统使用模糊联想记忆FAM (FuzzyAssociativeMemory)模型将神经网络与模糊系统结合起来 ,使之具有第 2代专家系统的学习功能 .系统知识库中除存有专家多年来总结的有关地震现场预报的知识外 ,还通过系统学习得到了一批十分有意义的、目前专家尚未总结的知识 .

According to the requirement of 'Instruction for Earthquake Situation Analysis at Site'(revised by Seismological Bureau of China), a system PTDSS (Post Earthquake Tendency Decision Support System) was built which combined with data processing, earthquake locating, expert system and database as one system. In this system, FAM(Fussy Associative Memory) model is used to make this system having function of self learning, the main characteristic of second generation expert system. In the knowledge base not only many experts' experiences are collected; but also many valuable new knowledge learnt by system itself is included which is meaningful for tendency decision making up and up to now it is still not summarized by prediction expert. The results of examination for earthquake cases show the system possesses good prediction ability.