油气管道风险管理技术的研究及应用

The Application Actualities of Foreign Pipeline Risk Management and the Future Work for China to Do

阐述了管道风险管理的内涵并界定了其内容,指出管道风险管理的实质是评价不断变化的管道系统的风险,从而对相应的管道安全维护活动作出调整,其经济本质是减少潜在损失的发生和优化分配用于维护管道安全的资源。对国外油气管道风险管理产生的背景、应用情况及效果和风险评价技术进行了回顾,并概述了“故障类型、影响和致命度分析”、“专家评分法”等几项风险评价技术。对我国油气管道风险管理技术的现状进行了评述,认为风险管理技术在我国尚处于风险评价的研究阶段,而在风险评价技术的应用上基本处于半定量化分析阶段,提出了我国近期开展这方面工作应制定的发展对策。

This paper describes the intension of pipeline risk management and definites its contents. It is pointed out that the substance of this technology is to assess the changing risk of pipeline system as to correct related safety activities,which belongs to the safety management in pipeline management system,and its economical substance is to decrease the potential loss that will be happened and optimize resource in pipeline safety maintenance. The author reviews the background of foreign pipeline risk management application effectiveness and risk management technology,and briefly introduces some risk management methods,such as FMECA and Point Scoring and so on. The application actualities of pipeline risk management technology in China is analyzed. The analytical results indicate that China should develop this technology as fast as possible because this technology now applied in China is basically at semi-quantitative analysis stage. The author considers that every effort must be done in study and application of pipeline risk management technology to meet the needs of pipeline design,construction and operation in China.