近20年来狮子座流星雨预报进展

Progress of Predicting in the Leonid Meteor Shower

时近２０年来狮子座流星雨的预报工作，进行了系统的阐述和分析。１９９８年Ｔｅｍｐｅｌ－Ｔｕｔｔｌｅ慧星的回归，再度带来了狮子座流星雨的观测热，也大大促进了对狮子座流星雨预报工作的研究与验证。有的研究在时间预报准确度方面己显示出其模型的优越性，有的在流星雨的强度方面显示出一定的准确度。指出了两大类不同的方法实际上是在三维空间强调了不同的方面。将不同方法的优势结合起来，可能会使流星雨的预报更加成熟。

The predicting of the Leonid meteor shower in history, especially during recent 20 years, has been expatiated and analyzed systematically, including the contribution of the author. The recent return of Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle in 1998 has push not only observational activities on the Leonid meteor shower, but also the research and verification about its prediction. Up to now, some predictions about maximum time of showers have shown very high veracity, and some predictions apparently have made mighty advantages in intensity of the shower. It seems these two kinds of method accentuate different aspects of the meteor swarm in 3-dimentional space. The combination of their success of different methods will make the predictions more maturate.