摘要
在用“聚类分析”、“加权压能场和湿斜压”以及“灰色预测”等方法制作山西省汛期暴雨落点落区预报时,同时用“湿辐合”方法进行计算,并采用“湿辐合”与“聚类分析”暴雨落点落区叠合集成,“湿辐合”与“加权压能场湿斜压”暴雨落点落区叠合集成,以及“湿辐合”与“灰色预测”等方法叠合集成,客观地确定出预报量可能出现的落点或落区。经过历史资料回代运算和2001年实时运行表明,此方法预报效果良好。
By using cluster analysis, weighing pressure energy field in humid baroclinity and grey prediction to produce forecast of heavy rain happening point and area in Shanxi province during flood period, coincidentally applying humid convergence way to be calculated, and taking humid convergence with cluster analysis, weighing pressure energy field in humid baroclinity and grey prediction to make repeated consensus of heavy rain happening point and area. The system can determine objectively available happening point and area of forecast value. Through calculating historic data and actually operating in 2001, It shows that forecast effect of the method is excellent.
出处
《山西气象》
2001年第4期2-5,共4页
Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly
关键词
聚类分析
湿辐合
加权压能场
湿斜压
灰色预测
暴雨落点落区预报业务系统
降水预报
Cluster analysis
humid convergence
weighing pressure energy field
humid baroclinity
grey prediction
heavy rain happening point and area
repeated consensus.