山西省暴雨落点落区预报业务系统研究

Research about forecast operation system of heavy rain happening point and area in Shanxi province

在用“聚类分析”、“加权压能场和湿斜压”以及“灰色预测”等方法制作山西省汛期暴雨落点落区预报时,同时用“湿辐合”方法进行计算,并采用“湿辐合”与“聚类分析”暴雨落点落区叠合集成,“湿辐合”与“加权压能场湿斜压”暴雨落点落区叠合集成,以及“湿辐合”与“灰色预测”等方法叠合集成,客观地确定出预报量可能出现的落点或落区。经过历史资料回代运算和2001年实时运行表明,此方法预报效果良好。

By using cluster analysis, weighing pressure energy field in humid baroclinity and grey prediction to produce forecast of heavy rain happening point and area in Shanxi province during flood period, coincidentally applying humid convergence way to be calculated, and taking humid convergence with cluster analysis, weighing pressure energy field in humid baroclinity and grey prediction to make repeated consensus of heavy rain happening point and area. The system can determine objectively available happening point and area of forecast value. Through calculating historic data and actually operating in 2001, It shows that forecast effect of the method is excellent.