钦州市2000年春播期天气特征成因分析及其前兆信号

Cause Analysis of Weather Characteristics During Spring Sowing in 2000 in Qinzhou and Its Auspice Signal

分析 2 0 0 0年春播期环流形势及其前兆信号得出 :南支槽较活跃 ,冷空气在江南堆积是形成钦州市 2月下旬长低温阴雨过程的机制 ;高空北支槽经向度加大 ,南支槽不活跃 ,东亚大槽明显偏东造成了 4月钦州市降雨量的偏少 ;前一年 9月 5 0 0 h Pa环流形势 ,拉尼娜现象 ,前一年秋冬季的副高、极涡以及本地气候异常是次年春播天气的前兆信号。同时通过对预报思路的分析和回顾 ,为以后的预报提供了新思路。

The analysis of circumfluence situation during spring sowing in 2000 and its auspice signal concluded that the active South Branch Trough and the stacking of cold air in the south part of China are the formation mechanism of long-term low temperature overcast and rainy process occurred in late Feb in Qinzhou As the meridional degree of North Branch Trough increased in the upper air, the South Branch Trough was not active, and the East-Asia Big Trough located obviously eastwards, the precipitation in Qinzhou in April was reduced The 500hPa circumfluence situation in September of the year before, La Nina phenomena and the sub-high pressure in autumn and winter of the year before, polar vertex and the local abnormal climate are the auspice signals of spring sowing weather in the next year In the mean time, the analysis and review of the forecast reason provide new reasons for the future forecast