2002年中国成品油市场形势分析

Prospect of China's Oil Products Market in 2002

2002年世界石油市场总体疲软,但依然存在走强的因素。加入WTO给中国石油市场带来重大变化,石油供应将总体充足,需求增长稳中有降。其中汽油需求增长约2％,供大于求,出口量将增加。柴油需求增长较快,产量有所增长,并以一定量的进口作为需求旺季的补充。LPG需求增长率可达7％～8％,产量上升,进口量继续下降。煤油需求增长预计保持在6.5％左右,产量有所上升,仍将保持一定的进口量。化工轻油需求增长率为3％左右,产量和净出口量均略有增长。受国际石油市场弱势的影响,预计2002年国内成品油价格的总体水平不会大幅上涨。

Generally speaking, the world petroleum market will be sluggish in 2002, but there are still some factors for the market to become prosperous. China's WTO membership will cause great changes in the country's petroleum market. The petroleum supply will be generally adequate with the growth of demand declining slightly. The gasoline demand is expected to rise about 2 percent, thus supply outpacing demand. The gasoline exports will be increased while there will be a certain amount for import. The diesel demand will grow rapidly with the production rising. It is necessary to import a certain amount of diesel to relieve the peak demand in the season. The growth rate of LPG demand will possibly reach 7~8 percent with the production rising and the imports continuing to decline. The growth of kerosene demand is expected to be kept at about 6.5 percent. The production will be on the increase while it is still necessary to import a certain amount of kerosene. The growth rate of demand for chemical light oil will be about 3 percent with the production and net imports rising slightly. Influenced.by the sluggish international petroleum market, the prices of oil products at home will not rise dramatically in 2002.