酸沉降农业经济损失估算

Estimation of the agricultural loss in economy due to acidic deposition

利用酸雨 p H值和 SO2 浓度对农作物产量的单一和复合影响模型 ,推算出自然条件下主要农作物受酸沉降危害的减产量 ,利用市场价格法估算并分析酸沉降造成的农业经济损失 ,结合 RAINS-Asia模型预测将来的损失。选取安徽省铜陵市为实例 ,分析表明 (以 1999年为基准 ) :酸沉降已使整个铜陵市受到污染 ,对铜陵市的农业生产造成一定程度的危害 ,主要农作物受酸沉降影响播种面积达 2 75 .17km2 ,减产 190 2 .97t,经济损失 10 1.15万元。预计 2 0 10年经济损失为 97.0

The output reduction of chief crops due to acidic deposition under natural conditions are calculated by using the models in which the pH value of acid rain and the concentration of SO 2 have an effect on the agricultural production individually or in combination.The agricultural loss in economy due to acidic deposition is calculated and analyzed with the method of market value,and the agricultural loss in future years is predicted by RAINS Asia model.The situation in Tongling City, Anhui Province is analyzed as an example,and the data in 1999 is taken as the basic data, and it is concluded that acidic deposition has done great damage to the agricultural production of Tongling City. The planting area of chief crops affected by acidic deposition has reached 275.17 km 2, and the whole area of Tongling City has been polluted by acidic deposition. The output reduction of chief crops reached 1 902.97 t and the economical loss was 1 011 500 RMB yuan in 1999, and the predicted loss in 2010 will be 970 100 RMB yuan.