年径流预测的Shepard插值模型

Shepard interpolation model for predicting annual runoff

年径流现象是多种因子综合作用的结果 ,各预测因子与年径流之间是复杂的非线性关系。目前提出的年径流预测模型大多用显式函数来表示 ,其具体的函数形式需随研究地区的不同而作相应的改变 ,求解这些函数一般较复杂。实际预测工作则常常是把本次年径流的预测因子值与当地年径流预测因子历史样本系列逐个进行比较分析 ,实践表明这种方法行之有效。为此 ,提出用Shepard插值方法构建年径流预测的新模型 (SP模型 )。实例研究的结果说明 ,SP模型简便、实用性强 ,可在径流中长期预测中广泛应用。

Predicting annual runoff is very important for guiding the management of water resources. Annual runoff is a result caused by many factors, and the relations of annual runoff and the predicting factors are complex and nonlinear. Nowadays the annual runoff prediction models mostly express the relations by explicit functions, the expressions of the functions will be changed according to the studying areas, and it is very difficult to resolve the functions. Predicting results in practice are generally obtained by comparing the predicting factors values of the current annual runoff with the sample series of the history annual runoff in the same area, which is proved to be very feasible and effective by a lot of practices. For this reason, a new model for predicting annual runoff, named SP model, is presented based on Shepard interpolation technique. The case study shows that SP model is convenient and effective, and that SP model can be applied to mid and long term prediction of many runoff processes.