大安古河道农业系统动力学模型

Dynamic model of agricultural system exploitation in Daan ancient river couse

在实地调查分析大安古河道资源的基础上 ,以系统论的观点 ,运用生态经济学、反馈控制论等原理 ,采用系统动力学的分析和模拟方法 ,剖析了古河道农业系统的内部结构和动态行为 ,建立了大安古河道农业系统SD模型 ,并在计算机上实现了大安古河道农业系统的动态仿真。围绕系统资源合理有效利用 ,系统生产力不断提高、系统的经济效益和社会效益良性发展、系统的生态环境得到改善这一开发治理的总体目标 ,通过改变控制变量和调整控制参数的方法 ,寻求开发治理的优化方案 ,并对未来系统的发展进行宏观预测。表 1,参

On the basis of investigation and analysis of Daan ancient river course resources,the authors adopted systematic viewpoint,applied such theories as ecological economics and feedback control,employed the analysis and simulation of system dynamic,and analyzed the internal structure and dynamic conduction of the agriculture system in Daan ancient river courses.A model for the ancient river courses'agricultural system SD model was established.Besides,a dynamic simulation for the Daan ancient river courses'agriculture system has been done on the computer.By means of changing control variables and adjusting parameters the paper sought the better approach for the system's development and control,made a macrofoecast for the future system's development,thereby provided theoretical and experimental basis for the policy making for the agriculture system's development in the ancient reiver courses,on the basis of the overall aim for the development and control of the system,to be specific,the proper and effective utilization of the system's resources,the gradual increase of the system's productivity,as the good development of the system economic and social benefits.