油松毛虫优化管理的研究

A STUDY ON THE OPTIMIZED MANAGEMENT OF CHINESE PINE CATERPILLAR (DENDROLIMIUS TABULAEFORMIS)

本文以油松林-油松毛虫生态系统为研究对象,采用系统分析方法,组建了油松生长子模型,油松毛虫种群生长子模型以及油松毛虫危害油松的子模型。并将它们耦联在一起,形成了油松林-油松毛虫系统模型。 为了寻求油松毛虫的优化管理途径,在上述系统模型的基础上,根据油松毛虫的10种常用管理措施的效果和费用,结合危害子模型,组建了油松毛虫的动态经济阈值模型。然后再根据最优化理论,建立了油松毛虫管理决策模型。最后对影响系统的主导因子进行了灵敏度分析。

Using system analysis methods, the ecosystem of the Chinese pine--Chinese pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus tabulaformis) was studied and the three dynamics submodels. Chinese pine submodel, Chinese pine caterpillar sub- modle and the damaging submodel of Chinese pine caterpillar were made. For the Chinese pine sasubmodel, the needle leaved weight sub-submodel and dynamic sub-submodels of height growth, diameter growth and wood volume growth were built. For the Chinese pine caterpillar submodel, the ARMQ (p,q) submodel of 5 - 8 instar larva,the ovipositing sub-submodel,the Leslie matrix model of 1-2 instar larva, and the grey sub-subsubmodel of predicting density of up-tree larva were built.And then, the three submodelswere combined to build the ecosystematical model of Chinese pine--Chinesepine caterpillar.Based on the relationship between the wood volume loss and the leaved damage degree, the dynamic economic threshold model was developed. With different densities and leaved weights of Chinese pine,the dynamic economic thresholds of ten control measures were simulated. The results are as follows. (1) with the same Chinese pine density, the larger the leaved weight, the larger the economic threshold is, (2) with the same leaved weight, the higher the Chinese pine density, the less the economic threshold is.At the end, in order to explore the ways of optimized management of Chinese pine caterpillar, the decision making analysis was constructed by 0 - 1 integral programming, FUZZY cybernetic and dynamic programming. The results of the integral programming decision and FUZZY decision show that the measure using poisonous ring in spring is the best one. The results of dynamic programming decision show that the optimized management is the intsgrated measures sprinkling poisonsus ring during larva climbing down-tree and up-tree and taking no control after up-tree. Also, applying sensitivity analysis method, several factors were discussed which affected decision making such as population density of Chinese pine caterpillar,leaved weight, density and timber price of Chinese pine.