大型电力网络系统抗震可靠度分析

Seismic reliability analysis of large electric power systems

提出了一类计算大型点权网络系统可靠度的递推分解算法。在此基础上,建议了设定地震影响场条件下的区域电力系统抗震可靠度的分析方法。文中给出的分析实例表明了递推分解算法的高效性质,也说明了区域电力系统抗震可靠性分析的重要性。

In order to evaluate the reliabilities of large systems, an analytic method is introduced to directly get disjoint mini-paths and disjoint mini-cuts of systems by using De. Morgan's law and basic Bolean law, so that the space complexity of the algorithm is far less than that of PNET method and DPT (disjoint products technique). By introducing Bonforrioni inequality, the method can be used to obtain the approximate solution of the problem with rather high accuracy for the large scale system within a satisfactory period of time. The conception of seismic risk analysis has been introduced into the analysis of seismic reliability of electric power systems. As modern electric power systems are always distributed over a vast region, the effects of earthquake actions vary on different power plants or substations and an analysis frame is therefore suggested to consider the specific seismic risk background and the responses and failure probabilities of each power plants and substations would be in agreement with the specific seismic risk field.