黑颈鹤种群动态模型

A MODEL OF THE BLACK-NECKED CRANE POPULATION DYNAMICS

本研究据已收集到的数据,用非参数统计方法确定了黑颈鹤种群的性比为1:1,避免了大量取样。根据黑颈鹤的特点,我们将其种群分成4个年龄组,并求出了各年龄组的存活率和繁殖率,据此建立了描述黑颈鹤种群动态的数学模型。用模型计算得出在乌蒙山区越冬的黑颈鹤种群的自然增长率为1.85‰;理想的种群结构为幼鹤、亚成鹤、成鹤、老鹤分别占总数的15.5％、21.5％、60.2％、2.8％,最后预测了乌蒙山黑颈鹤种群在1988～2000年越冬期的数量。1989年1月经实地调查该种群总数为310只,而预测值为303只,误差约2％。

From a lot of study of Black-necked Crane during more than ten years, authors have built mathematical model of the crane population. The result of testing the model shows that the error between the value of simulation and the value of actual observation in the field is within 3％. authors have yet found out average survival rate of juvenile group is 60％; of young group is 78％; of adult group is 38％; of old group is 60％; and the adult crane reproduction rate is 35％; and the rate of natural increase of the crane PoPulation is 1.85％. Basing on the investigation, authors make a suggestion to the Natural Conservation of Black-necked crane in China, and a Plan to research further the crane.