防洪工程系统风险分析方法探讨

Inquiry into system risk analytic method of flood control engineering

从风险分析的角度研究流域防洪体系的组成、影响因素及其风险分析方法 ,包括系统破坏概率和洪灾损失的估算、非工程措施对减小系统风险的影响等 ,并结合长江中游防洪工程的特点 ,探讨防洪系统的组成。研究表明 :通过系统风险分析 ,可以将防洪工程的安全性、经济性和社会性相互结合 。

In this paper, the constitution of valley flood control system, influence factors and their analysis methods are studied in viewpoint of risk analysis. The contents include the estimations of system failure probability and flood loss and the effect of nonstructural measures on decreasing system risk. In connection with the features of flood defense engineering of the middle Yangtze River, the constitution of flood defense system is investigated. The study result shows that through the system risk analysis, the safety, economy and sociality of flood defense engineering may be combined one another as a synthesis for serving the establishment of flood control decision supporting system.