老油区石油储量增长趋势预测及应用

ESTIMATION OF RESERVE INCREMENT TENDENCY FOR A MATURED PETROLEUM PROVINCE AND ITS APPLICATION

本文选用龚帕兹(Gompertz)模型对我国成熟油区石油储量增长趋势及最终可探明储量进行了定量预测。编制了相应的软件,经实际资料验证预测效果良好。文中对参数求法、模型检验和预测结果应用进行了讨论。本文是以油区历年实际探明储量资料为直接依据、结合地质分析并运用数学模型进行老油区可探明资源量预测的一次有益尝试。

On the basis of petroleum geological analysis and historical reserve data analysis, the Gompertz model is selected to predict the reserve increment tendency and possible ultimate reserves respectively for a matured petroleum. province. A well-compiled computer program gives good results. Examination of the model showed that the selected model is reasonable and suitable for different types of matured petroluem provinces. It is the first time to use the Gompertz model to quantitatively estimate the possible reserves for a matured oil province in China. lt is suggested that the forecasting r esults can be used in the decision of further exploration in a matured petroleum province.