我国重大气候灾害特征、形成机理和预测研究

Research on the characteristics, formation mechanism and prediction of severe climatic disasters in China

简要地介绍了我国气候灾害的种类、时空分布特征及其造成的经济损失；并从东亚气候系统海一陆- 气相互作用的观点，结合１９９８年夏季长江、松花江和嫩江流域特大洪涝发生的具体实例分析了我国气候灾害发生的主要原因；此外，还回顾了目前我国气候预测的实际情况。提出了关于气候灾害预测研究中急待解决的几个问题．

In this paper, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and the economic losses of main climatic disasters in China are simply introduced. Moreover, the predominant causes of the climatic disasters are analyzed from the viewpoint of the sea-land-air interactions in East Asian climate system and combining with the actual facts of particularly severe floods occurred in the Yangtze River Valley. the Nenjiang Valley and Songhuajiang Valley in summer of 1998. Besides, the recent actual situation of climate prediction in China is also reviewed and some problems to be solved in the future in the study on prediction of climatic disasters are proposed.