中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

On the risk of earthquake disaster in China in the coming 10～15 years

中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国５０％以上的城市和７０％左右的大中城市位于７度及以上烈度区内．地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区．所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主．通过对中国未来１０—１５年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大．

China is one of countries with great earthquake losses in the world. Among 668 cities in China, 50% of the total cities and 70% of great and middle cities are located within the areas with more than 7 degree of earthquake intensity. The earthquake caused great losses and hazard in China, the main losses distributed in the Capital circle' which take Beijing as its center, and in the south-north belt which links Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi and inner-Mongolia. as well as the north-western part of Xinjiang. The risk of earthquake disaster is defined as the estimated future losses of earthquake with some uncertainty, which must be based on the evaluation of the ability of earthquake prevention and re duction. In China, the coastal area and the Capital circle have strong ability of earthquake prevention and reduction, while the danger of future earthquakes will occur mainly in the western part of China and the North China. Based on the evaluation of earthquake danger, earthquake harm, the ability of disaster bearing and the ability of earthquake prevention and reduction in China, a series map of earthquake divisions were developed. It can be speculated that the eastern part of China, with moderate earthquake dan- ger and great economic ability, will have a small earthquake loss risk, the western part of China and the south -north belt, with great earthquake danger and weak economic ability, should have a great earthquake loss risk.