福建省粮食作物气候-土壤生产力及人口承载量的研究

CLIMATE-SOIL PRODUCTIVITY OF GRAIN CROPS AND POTENTIAL POPULATION SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF LAND IN FUJIAN PROVINCE

文章采用改进的农业生态区域法 ,计算全省 2 9个代表站水稻、小麦、甘薯 3种作物光温、气候及气候 -土壤生产力 ;将福建分成 6个农业自然区进行分析 ;根据对未来 2 0 1 0年及 2 0 5 0年人口、耕地的动态预测 ,计算各农业区农田的人口承载力。分析结果表明 :福建省目前、2 0 1 0年、2 0 5 0年人口分别为 32 6 1×1 0 4人、370 8× 1 0 4人、4 1 6 8× 1 0 4人 ,人均占有粮食分别为 31 1 2kg·a- 1 、30 9 2kg·a- 1 、32 6 3kg·a- 1 ,不足低消费水平 4 0 0kg·a- 1 ,若增加农业投入 ,未来的粮食能达到理想产量水平。为合理利用当地自然资源 ,明确农业投入方向和协调粮食需求平衡 ,提出对策及建议 :①建设旱涝保收田 ;②合理调整粮食布局 ,挖掘生物学产量潜力 ;③提高土壤肥力 ,促进作物高产 ;④改良品种 ;⑤严格限制非农业用地 ,控制人口增长。

Calculated by improved Kassam-Wageningen method, the effects of light, temperature and water productive potentiality on rice, wheat and sweet potatos at 29 stations in Fujian are studied. The geographic distribution of crop productivities in six farming areas is given along with the prediction of future development of productivity in the years of 2010 and 2050. Analysis is also made of the productive potentiality to meet the demand of population growth. The result showed that the grain issue will hinder the development of national economy in Fujian in the 50 years ahead. Conditions vary in each area: the grain yield in northeast and southwest of Fujian can achieve a low level of annual 400kg per capita, that in northwest Fujian can exceed 500kg per capita. However, in the three developed areas of central-eastern, southeastern and southern Fujian, an annual 400kg per capita can realize. Finally, countermeasures for reaching balance between the necessity and production of crops by rational utilization of natural resources are put forward.