基于公路网的路段交通量预测方法研究

Research on Traffic Forecast Method for Highway Section Based on Highway Network

分析现行公路路段交通量预测中存在的问题 ,在此基础上提出以“网”为依托 ,基于公路网的路段交通量预测方法 ,重点讨论基于公路网的交通预测四阶段法 ,同时给出路段通行能力的确定和区域形心位置的选取方法和原则 ,并讨论实际中应注意的问题 ,对公路网规划、公路工程项目可行性研究、公路建设计划的拟定等具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。

This paper first analyzes the defects in the current procedure of traffic forecast for highway section, then puts forward the traffic forecast method based on the highway network. It mainly discusses the fourstep forecast method of highway section traffic based on the highway network. Meanwhile it shows how to determine the capacity of highway section and the position of traffic region centroid,as well as some practical pissues. The method discussed in the article is important both in theory and in practical application for highway network planning, feasibility study of highway project and the drafting of highway construction program.