南京市电力需求现状分析与预测

本文分析了南京市全社会、第一、第二、第三产业及一些典型行业,例如化工、冶金、商贸等行业的电力供需现状,讨论了七年来用电量、电力峰谷差等的发展变化情况。根据南京市用电发展的实际情况,使用经过改进的电力弹性系数法和曲线拟合法对南京市未来五年的用电需求、峰谷差等作出预测。

This paper analyzed the electricity demand and provision circumstance of total society, the first industry, second industry, third industry and some typical industries, for example, metallurgy industry, chemical industry in Nanjing. The article presented the development of electricity consumption and peak valley dispersion. An improved power elasticity factor method and curve approach method are used to forecast the power demand and electricity peak valley dispersion of next five years.