台风路径预报的定量分析

The Quantitative Analysis in Typhoon Route Forecast

针对传统预报台风路径方法不够准确的缺陷 ,采用动力学方法 ,定量分析了作用在台风上的地转偏向力、内力、气压梯度力对台风转向所起作用的程度 ,指出了判定台风转向的动力学和天气学条件 ,证明了台风强度移速和气压场变化是台风转向的原因。

In view of the defect of traditional method in typhoon forcast that littie accurates,this paper uses dynamics method,for Coriolis power,inner power and atmospheric pressuer power that act on the typhoon The paper analyzes the typhoon turn degree,points out the dynamics and weathers conditions that make typhoon turn,and the changes of typhoon intensity move speed and atmospheric pressure space that lead to typhoon turn are derived.