基于仿真的复杂武器系统任务可靠性计算方法研究

Simulation Based Mission Reliability Calculation Methods of Complex Weapon System

论述了复杂武器系统任务可靠性计算的一般要求和计算任务可靠度及MTBCF的基本计算方法。分析了复杂系统可靠性置信下限用仿真方法求解的基本问题,包括抽样方法、仿真计算程序及系统可靠性综合求解等问题。通过具体示例,说明了复杂系统的故障分布是指数型的说法并不总是正确的,应通过数据检验来确定其分布,否则,计算结果有很大误差。根据简化模型,把仿真方法与解析方法计算结果进行了对比分析,提出了供工程应用的有效可行方法。

This paper discusses mission reliability assessment and basic calculation method of MTBCF (Mission Time Between Critical Failure). It analyses the estimation methods of lower confidence limits of complex system reliability with simulation, including sample method, simulation algorithm and system reliability synthetic method. It is not always right that fault distribution function of complex system is exponential distribution by the examples. It must be decided through data test or else there is high error in the calculating result. The reduction model based comparison of simulation methods with calculating results of analytic methods is given. The effective methods are provided for engineering.