核能海水淡化的经济竞争性比较研究

Comparative Study of Economic Competitive for Nuclear Seawater Desalination

采用平准化贴现产水成本法和最新的海水淡化经济评价软件(DEEP1.1),对东南亚地区核能海水淡化和化石能源海水淡化大量方案的经济竞争性进行了比较研究。结果表明,核能海水淡化具有较强的经济竞争性,其竞争性普遍存在于反渗透膜(RO)法、多效蒸馏(MED)法和多级闪蒸(MSF)法3种淡化技术中。淡化水成本由于所采用的淡化技术和水厂规模的不同,具有很大的差别,变化范围为0.56～1.89＄·m-3。其中,RO法最便宜,MSF法最贵。影响其经济竞争性的敏感因素依次为:贴现率、水厂规模、海水温度与海水总可溶固体物(TDS)含量、化石燃料价格和能源厂比投资,与基准方案相比,水成本的变化率最高可达19.3%。

The method of levelized discounted production water cost and the new desalination economic evaluation program (DEEP1.1) are used.Many cases of seawater desalination by nuclear energy or fossil energy combined with reverse osmosis (RO),Multi effect distillation (MED) or multi stage flash (MSF) technology in south east Asia is performed and their economic competitive is analyzed.Their results indicate,the nuclear desalination plants have stronger economic competitive comparing to the fossil in the RO,MED and MSF technology.The desalination water cost is very changeable depending on the difference of desalination technology and water plant size.Its range is 0.56$·m-3～1.89$·m-3,the lowest desalination water cost is product by RO and the highest is by MSF.The sensitive factors of the economic competitive are orderly the discounted rate,desalination plant size,seawater temperature and total dissolved solids (TDS),fossil fuel price and specific power plant investment.The highest rate of water cost is about 19.3% comparing to base case.