利率期限贴水与货币本位制度:欧洲国家的实证分析

Term Agio of Interest Rate and Monetary Standard:Analyzed through European Substantial Evidence

利用比利时、法国、瑞典及英国 1791年至 1992年的年度资料 ,可以验证法币本位制的名义利率及期限贴水水平值平均而言较金本位制高。同时 ,实证分析也不支持在金本位制下长期债券较短期债券报酬高的假说 ,即在法币本位制下 ,货币发行没有实体的制约 ,因此 ,长期债券相对于短期债券的不确定性较高 ,所以在既定的利率水平下需要期限贴水予以补偿。

Having analyzed the European substantial evidence, the essay verifies that nominal interest rate and term agio under legal tender standard are averagely higher than they are under gold standard. The analysis does not support the hypothesis that under the gold standard, the returns of long-term securities are higher than those of short-term ones.