矿震系统的胞映射-突变预测模型

Cell-mapping-catastrophic forecasting model of mine quake system

针对传统矿震预测理论和方法存在的问题及矿震本身的非线性动力学特征 ,基于胞映射理论和突变理论提出了“矿震系统的胞映射突变预测模型”。该模型既考虑了矿震系统的非线性动力学本质 ,又利用胞映射理论消除了初值的随机性和矿震系统本身的内在随机性对预测结果的影响。分析实例表明 ,该模型可以更精确而客观地识别和预测矿震演化过程中的突变行为。

Mine quake is a dynamic phenomenon of rock mass which is very harmful to mining. In allusion to the disadvantages of traditional forecasting theories and the nonlinear dynamic features of mine quake,'cell mapping catastrophic forecasting model of mine quake'is set up based on the cell mapping theory and catastrophic theory. The nonlinear dynamic essences of mine quake is considered by the model, and the influences of random of initialized values of variables and the internal randomicity of mine quake on forecasting results are subtly eliminated with the cell mapping theory. The example shows that the model can distinguish and forecast the catastrophic behaviors of the evolution of mine quake more accurately and objectively.