泥石流沟危险度的模糊评判

A Fuzzy Appraisal of the Risk Degree of Debris Flows

文章是在已有的研究成果基础上 ,结合泥石流的活动特征、泥石流危害对象特征 ,提出了六大评价指标 ;同时考虑到模糊数学在实际应用中的优点 ,运用层次分析法确定危险度的评价指标权重 ,建立了泥石流的危险度模糊评价模型 ,最后用成功的泥石流研究实例对模型进行了运算验证。结果表明 ,运用模糊评价方法对泥石流沟的危险度进行评价的方法是科学可行的 ,它对实际泥石流的灾害特征认识、灾害防治具有一定的指导意义。

Based on the existing achievements of the studies of debris flows,their features of activities and their victims,the paper puts forward six appraising norms.Taking into account the advantages of fuzzy mathematics in the practical application and using a gradation analysis to determine the appraising norms of risk degrees,it sets up a model of fuzzy appraisal of debris flows and finally examines it with a successful example of its application.The result shows that this kind of appraisal is feasible and significant for the understanding of the features of debris flows and their prevention.