祁连山东部地区高分辨率气候记录研究

An analysis of the detailed climatic recorder of the eastern Qilian mountains,China

利用采自祁连山东部的祁连圆柏树芯样本 ,建立标准化年表 ,并将标准年表的树轮指数与采样点附近的天祝乌鞘岭气象站的温度和降水进行响应函数和相关函数分析 .结果表明 ,树轮标准年表序列与当地 3～ 4月份降水成显著正相关 ,相关系数达 0 .5 2 5 ,不同检验分析方法均说明 ,祁连圆柏树轮宽度年表可以用来重建这一地区近 2 80年来的春季降水变化 .重建的近 2 80年来研究区少雨春季与毗邻的河西走廊干旱区旱灾的历史记录相吻合 ;研究还发现 ,祁连山东部地区春季降水对近 10 0年来全球变暖出现明显的相反响应 ,春季降水有明显的减少趋势 .奇异谱和功率谱分析表明 ,近 30 0年来研究区春季降水主要有准 19a和 15

Based on the Sabina przewalskii samples obtained in the eastern part of Qilian Mountains,west of China,a standardized tree-ring chronology was established.The correlation and the response function analysis were carried out between the tree-ring index and the temperature as well as the precipitation at Wushaoling Meteorology Station,which is 70 km away from the sampling site.The results showed that the tree-ring index was significantly correlated with the precipitation of March and April,with a coefficient of 0.525.The precipitation of March and April in the studied area was reconstructed for the past 280 years.The statistics have confirmed that the reconstruction series is reliable.The variation of the reconstructed precipitation coincides with the archives recorder of the researched area.It can be seen that the climate has become wetter in the past 280 years.The results of the SSA (singular spectrum analysis) and the power spectrum analysis indicated that there were two main periods of 15 years and 19 years in the variation of the reconstructed spring precipitation.