上海市流行性乙型脑炎发病率长期变异的生态因素研究

Study on Ecological Factors for Secular Changes in Incidence of Jananese Encephalitis in Shanghai

目的 探讨上海市乙脑发病率下降的主要影响因素。方法 分析上海市历年来的生态因素 ,如气象条件、水田种植面积、猪饲养数、蚊虫密度、猪群和人群的抗体水平等与近 5 0年来乙脑发病率长期变异关系。结果 水田种植面积和猪饲养数的增多可能是 196 5～ 196 7年乙脑流行的原因 ,但对 196 8年以后乙脑发病率下降影响不大。 196 8年以后乙脑发病率的大幅度下降可能与乙脑疫苗接种率的提高有关。结论 乙脑疫苗的免疫接种对预防和控制乙脑起重要作用 ,乙脑疫苗接种仍需持续。

Objective To investigate the factors for the secular changes in incidence of JEV in Shanghai.Methods The ecological factors of JE, such as meteorological records, area of rice field, size of pig populations and mosquito population density during the recent 50 years were studied and compared to the secular changes in JE incidence rate during the same period.Results It was revealed that the increase in area of rice field and pig raising which might be a cause for the JE epidemic in Shanghai, 1965-1967, could not be associated with the dramatic decline in JE incidence rate after 1968, which could be explained solely by the universal childhood vaccination against JEV.Conclusion JE vaccination was highly effective for control of JE and should be kept on in the foreseeable future.