涨落差法原理浅析及其在洪水预报中的应用

Analysis on the Theory and Application of Fluctuation Difference Method

从河道洪水运动波方程的有限差分解入手,推导出了涨落差法的计算公式,进而证明该计算公式为河道洪水扩散波方程二阶精度的有限差分解。该洪水预报方法参数少,计算方法简单,有预见期。实际应用表明,涨落差法的特点是实用性强,而且具有较高的洪水预报精度,但同时也存在误差累积的缺点。

The equation of fluctuation difference is derived by searching the finite difference solution of kinematic wave equation.This method is proved to be the second order finite difference solution of the diffusion wave.The calculation of the method is simple because it has only two parameters with a certain leading time.The application shows that this method is suitable for real time forecasting with more accuracy;but it has the lack of error accumulation at the same time.