跨世纪世界经济演变的趋势及其不确定的变数

World Economic Evolutional Trends and Their Uncertain Variable During the New Century Superseding the Old One

归纳出世界经济的体系、演变的逻辑、既成的格局及其发展的动力四个趋势 ,并就每一趋势下的特点表现进行了剖析 ,最后得出结论 :世界经济仍将在市场经济的体系下和发达国家“跨国思想”的逻辑下演变 ,将在区域集团化的基础上形成多极化的的格局 ,其中市场的全球化和贸易自由化是推动世界经济持续发展的根本动力。但需要指出几个不确定的变数 :虚拟经济对实物经济的背离倾向 ;跨国公司对母国的背离倾向 ;区域集团化对经济一体化的背离倾向以及全球化中的贫富分化倾向。由于这些变数的存在 ,世界经济在新世纪初年或许正在进行着“路径选择”。

Four trends and their characteristics in world economy--the system, the logic of the evolution, the accomplished structure and the developmental motive force--are obtained through an analysis of the evolution,thus coming to the conclusion that world economy still evolves, under the system of market economy and the logic of 'transnational thoughts' of developed countries, forms the multipolarizational structure based on regional integration,and that market globalization and trade liberalization are the basic motive forces for the world economic sustainable development.But there are some uncertain variables: inclination of virtual economy deviating from real economy,that of transnational corporation deviating from the native country, that of regional integration deviating from economic integration and that of the rich and the poor splitting up on the globalization. Because of these 'variables',' choice of path' is being made in progress in world economy at the beginning of the new century.