气候变化对中国南方水稻生产的阶段性影响及适应性对策

Gradual Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptation Strategies in Southern China

根据GISSGCMTransientBRun的输出结果 ,结合中国南方稻区 15个样点近 4 0年的逐日气候资料 ,生成了每个样点在 2 0 10年、2 0 30年和 2 0 5 0年的气候变化情景 ;利用CERES Rice模型在基准气候 (196 0～ 1997年 )以及上述不同年份的气候变化情景下运行的结果 ,结合中国若干农业气候指标 ,分区评述了未来 10年、30年和 5 0年全球气候变化对不同稻作类型水稻生育期、产量、稻田蒸散量的阶段性影响 ,并分析了中国稻作制度可能发生的演进趋势。最后 ,在模拟试验的基础上 ,提出了若干适应气候变化的农业对策 ,包括调整品种布局、有条件地扩种双季稻、改善灌溉条件及培育和引进新品种等。

The transient climate change scenarios in 2010,2030 and 2050 in southern China were generated using outputs of the GISS GCM transient B Run combined with the local historic weather data (1960～1997).The CERES Rice model was run and several agroclimatic indices were employed under the 3 climate change scenarios to assess the gradual implications of global climate change on rice growth duration and yields in the rice regions of the Central,South and Southwest China in 2010,2030,2050.Also,changes in evapotranspiration(ET) in paddy field and rice cropping systems in the studied regions in 10,30 and 50 years are analyzed.Finally,some strategies adapting to climate change are presented based on the simulation experiment,including regulations of rice varietal disposition,improvement of irrigation system,extending double rice,breeding and introducing new rice varieties.