大坝安全监控模型中灰参数的识别

IDENTIFICATION OF GREY PARAMETERSIN MODELSOF DAM SAFETY MONITORING AND CONTROL

在对大坝的观测数据建立模型时 ,模型本身是不确定的 ,模型的输入也是不确定的。文中从灰色系统的基本原理出发 ,对显式结构模型的灰参数进行了识别 ,确定了灰参数的中点值和半径值 ,然后利用获得的灰参数的中点值和半径值对观测数据进行了预测 ,给出了预测值的中点值和变化范围。

Both the system model and input are uncertain when a model is built for the observed data of a dam . Based on the theory of grey system,this paper identifies grey param eters and obtains their m edian values and radius for an explicit structure m odel. With these achieved data,the ranges of predicted values can be given. It can be concluded that this m ethod can not only increase the rate of qualified operation,but also provide m ore information about modeling and prediction.