22周和23周太阳黑子相对数峰值趋势分析

THE PEAK VALUES TENDENTIOUS ANALYSIS OF RALATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER-OF CYCLES 22_nd AND 23_nd

太阳活动第22周从1986年9月开始.本周初始阶段的活动比一般的周频繁,是否会成为高活动周还是问题.为此,本文作了进一步的研究,分析了古代的和现代的相关资料.从统计结果和物理分析结果看22周太阳黑于相对数峰值R_M(22)不会超过21周的峰值R_M(21).预报,R_M(22)<R_M(21)同时预计,R_M(23)≤100.

In september 1986,the cycle 22_(nd) of solar activity began.During the primary peried,its activities manifested more frequently than usual does.Whether cycle 22_(nd) would go to a high active cycle remains a question.Face the realistic situation,the author takes further steps to study it.Not only ancient correlative data but also modern times data has been analysed.To sum up briefly,neither the statistic result nor the physical analysis result showed the peak value of ralative sunspot number of cycle 22_(nd) [R_M(22)]would be higher than that of the peak value of cycle 21_(st) [R_M(21)]. The conclusion is RM(22)<R_M(21). It has,moreover,given RM(23)≤100.