应用灰色系统动态模型群分析泾河流域减沙效益

Using Group of Dynamic Models of Grey Theory To Analyze the Benefit of Decreasing Silt in Jinghe Watershed

本文以泾河流域出口站(张家山站)1952～1985年34年实测输沙量为原始数据,应用灰色系统理论,建立一套灰色动态模型群,对泾河流域1976～1985年10年减沙效益进行了分析。用水文法比较得到了理想结果,为计算较大流域减沙效益提供了新方法,并为较大流域的综合治理,水土流失预报提供了依据。

Using grey theory with the data of annual survy amount of water carry silt which gained from 1952 to 1985 for total 34 years at the exit mouth station (Zhang jiashan Station) of Jinghe watershed, the author established a group of grey models to analyze the ten years'benefit of decreasing silt during 1976 and 1985. This group of models was proved effect by checking the results with hydrological method. It presents a new method for calculating Lhe benefit of decreasing silt and provide the basis for forecasting the soil and water loss in comprehensive harness in large vallies.