从一个实例分析看地下水位时间序列模型的可靠性与数据系列长度之间的关系

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MODEL RELIABILITY AND DATA SERIES LENGTH——FROM ONE CASE STUDY

时间序列建模过程中一个经常碰到的问题是使用多长的数据系列模型才具有一定的可靠性。本文运用传递函数建模策略(Transfen function modelling),以一个地下水位时间序列资料的分解与建模,对不同数据系列长度的地下水位时间序列模型比较分析。并以此为根据对模型的可靠性与其相应的数据系列长度之间的关系进行了一些初步探索。

One question in time series modelling is how model reliability relates to the data series length. By using transfer function modelling strategy, the article has modelled the real groundwater level time series, and the models from various length of data series are analysed. Based on these results, the relationship between model reliability and data series length is drscussed.