中国干旱内陆河出山径流对流域气象要素与全球气象指数的响应特征研究

Response characteristics of mountainous runoffs of the inland rivers in arid areas of China to watershed meteorological elements and global climate indices

干旱内陆河出山径流及其影响因素分析对于流域水资源评价、流域经济生态安全保障具有重要意义。基于1960—2012年塔里木河流域"三源流"与黑河流域的出山径流、降水、气温资料及4个全球气象指数监测数据,采用小波分析方法研究了各水文气象要素的周期特征,以及流域出山径流对气象要素与气象指数的响应特征。结果表明:(1)各水文气象因子多具有1～2个显著周期,周期多在2～7 a尺度范围内。(2)叶尔羌河、黑河出山径流与流域降水分别在6～17 a、2～16 a周期上关系显著。各出山径流与流域降水、气温的多尺度共振周期性差异,反映了各径流来源构成及其与气象要素年际动态方面的差异。(3)各流域出山径流对气象指数的响应特征不同,这在显著时频域以及径流响应时滞等方面均有表现。此研究可为气候变化条件下干旱内陆河流域生态—水文过程响应及水资源管理提供依据。

Analysis of mountainous runoffs of the inland rivers in the arid areas of China and their influence factors has great significance in the evaluation of their basin water resources and the insurance of basin economic and ecological safety.Based on mountainous runoffs,precipitation and air temperature data of three sub-basins in Tarim River Basin (TRB),the Aksu River Basin (ARB),Yarkand River Basin (YRB)and Hotan River Basin (HTRB),and Heihe River Basin (HRB),together with four elimate indices,the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI),North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),Arctic Oscillation (AO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO )from 1960to 2012,multi-scale periodicities of the hydrological and meteorological elements,and the response characteristics of the mountainous runoffs to watershed meteorological elements and global climate indices are systematieally investigated in this paper by adopting methods of wavelet analysis,including Continuous Wavelet Transform (WT), Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT)and Wavelet Coherence (WTC).The results show that the multi-scale periodicities of SOI are-3-5-a, 11-12a and the multi-scale periodicities of PDO are 4-6a,9-10a.The multi-scale periodicities of NAO and AO are 2-4a in 1960s.The periodicities of precipitation in all basins are 2-4a,4-7a,and that of air temperature are 2-5a.The periodicities of mountainous runoffs are 2-5a except for the Yarkand River.Whole time significant resonance periodicity of 6-17a is identified between precipitation and mountainous runoff in YRB,and periodicity of 2-16a is identified in HRB.Significant resonance periodicities of 3-5a are identified between air temperature and mountainous runoffs in ARB,YRB and HTRB.The multiple-scale resonance periodicities between runoffs and watershed precipitation and temperature reflect the differences of runoff source compositions and inter-annnal dynamics of both runoffs and meteorological elements.The response characteristics of the runoffs to the climate indices are different ,which have performance in the significant time-frequency domains and the runoff response time lags.The findings and methods presented here help understand the response of mountainous runoffs of the inland river basins in the arid areas to meteorological elements and knowledge and usable toolbox of approaches that can be used by the related people draulic processes and water resource planning and operations under future climate climate indices,and expand the and scientists to improve eco-hyuncertainty.