绿色住宅市场激励政策优化仿真研究——以西安市为例

A Simulation Analysis of Optimized Incentive Policies in Green Housing Market——A Case Study of Xi'an

发展绿色住宅是实现绿色发展理念的重要工具。论文运用系统动力学方法,对西安市的绿色住宅市场进行仿真研究,讨论了信贷、税费、补贴、容积率等激励政策对发展绿色住宅的效力,提出优化的激励政策策略组合。仿真结果显示开发贷款利率优惠、容积率奖励、开发税费优惠、购房贷款利率优惠是四项灵敏政策,而财政补贴和新房购置税费优惠无特别明显促进作用,但财政补贴越向开发商倾斜效果越好。为实现西安市"十三五"规划要求,论文提出两种综合政策,边际效益最大政策和规模最大政策。规模最大政策比边际效益最大政策的激励效果略好,但激励成本却高出很多,因此论文建议优先选择边际效益最大政策。

The advancing of green housing market becomes an important instrument to achieve the national green development concept.This paper employs the System Dynamics Model to simulate the green housing market in Xi'an to discuss the effectiveness of incentive policies,including credit,taxes,subsidies and floor area ratio,thus puts forward the optimal incentive policies complex.The simulation results show that there are four sensitive policies for the green housing development such as loan interest rate concession,floor area ratio awards,development tax concession and housing mortgage interest rate concession,while the financial subsidies and new housing purchase tax concessions have no obvious promotion effects.However,the more the developers enjoy the financial subsidies the better effect will be achieved.In order to fulfill the aim of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"of Xi'an City,this paper proposes two policies complex,the largest marginal benefit polices complex and the largest scale policies complex.The largest scale policies complex has a slightly better incentive compared to the highest marginal benefit policies complex,but its cost is much higher.Therefore,this paper suggests that the largest marginal benefit policies complex be given more priority.