日散射辐射推算模型在中国的适用性研究

APPLICABILITY OF ESTIMATION MODELS FOR DIFFUSE SOLAR RADIATION IN CHINA

根据因变量的不同将散射辐射经验模型归纳为2大类,再按照输入变量进一步将其划分为9个子类,结合中国观测数据状况,选择出9个有代表性的模型。利用分布于中国5个建筑气候区的15个典型台站2000~2013年的观测数据进行建模与验证。引入相关系数R^2、平均绝对误差MAE和均方根误差RMSE作为模型适用性评价指标。结果显示:第Ⅰ类模型的推算误差总体小于第类模型,且第Ⅰ类模型的推算误差与当地平均晴朗指数呈负相关;模型4和模型8分别是Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类中最佳适用性模型。

In order to estimate diffuse component,numerous empirical models have been developed. These models are primarily divided into 2 categories on the bases of dependent variable and further subdivided into 9 sub-categories for different inputs. In view of the measured data status in China,9 typical models are select to evaluate. Measurement made during 2000-2013 from 15 typical stations in five building climate zones are employed on analyzation and verification.The coefficient of determination(R^2),mean absolute bias error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)are chosen as a criterion for model applicability. The result shows that estimation error of categories Ⅰ is less than that of categories Ⅱ as a whole,and it is negatively correlated with local average clearness index;model 4 and model 8 are best in their own categories respectively.