强人类活动下京津冀城市群水资源演变的影响因素

Influencing Factors of Water Resources Evolution Driven by Strong Human Activities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

针对强人类活动影响下京津冀城市群水资源短缺日益严重和水资源环境日趋恶化的现状,以城市群快速聚集发展为研究视角,综合运用DPSIR概念框架模型及主成分分析法,对京津冀城市群14个地级以上城市2007年—2016年的人工取用水、城市土地利用变化、经济社会发展及环境保护等状况进行分层指标划分,并进一步分析影响京津冀城市群水资源演变的主要因素及其影响程度。结果表明,基于主成分分析法得到的3个主成分因子按贡献率高低排序分别为城市土地利用变化与人工取用水的综合作用、水利建设及环境保护措施、人口密集化程度;农业发展水平是京津冀城市群水资源演变的重要影响因素,同时京津冀城市群对外调水的依赖性日益增大,且人口增长对资源环境的巨大压力需受到进一步重视。

Under the influence of strong human activities,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is facing an increasingly severe shortage of water resources and deteriorating water resource environment.From the perspective of rapid development of urban agglomeration,the DPSIR conceptual framework model and principal component analysis were comprehensively applied to classify the water consumption,changes of urban land utilization,economic and social development and environmental protection of 14 cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2007 to 2016,and the main factors influencing the evolution of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration were further analyzed.The results showed that the three principal component factors were obtained based on the principal component analysis,and the factors,in order of contribution rate,were the comprehensive effect of urban land utilization change and water consumption,the construction of water conservancy projects and environmental protection measures,and the population density.The level of agricultural development was an important factor influencing the evolution of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.At the same time,the dependency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration on water diversion was increasing day by day,and the enormous pressure of population growth on resources and environment needed to be paid more attention to.