农户土地规模决策行为:盲目还是理性——以河南小麦种植户为例

Farmers’ Land Scale Decision-making Behavior: Blind or Rational?——Taking Wheat Growers in Henan Province as an Example

基于河南省580个小麦种植户调查数据,在多项Order Logit模型回归后,利用回归后估计(post-estimation)方法得出边际效应和预测概率探究农户土地规模决策行为的驱动因素。结果显示:逐利动机不是农户规模决策的唯一目标,子女继承长期目标是农户规模决策的另一重要内在驱动因素;农户盈利目标是获得规模经济效益,而非寻求政府补贴;资金缺口制约农户规模扩张决策行为,现有面积对大规模农户继续扩大规模决策的负向牵制作用显著;小规模农户扩大面积的预测概率较大,大规模农户扩大面积的预测概率较小、缩小面积等其它决策概率较大。因此,农户土地规模决策行为并未偏离寻求规模收益的初始行为逻辑,也不存在风险(债务)偏好的盲目性,大规模农户在现有面积等负向牵制作用下不追求“以大为美”的决策逻辑。

Based on the survey data of 580wheat growers in Henan Province,after the regression of multiple Order Logit models,the post-estimation method was used to obtain the driving factors of the marginal effect and prediction probability to explore the decision-making behavior of farmers"land scale,The results show that profit-seeking motive is not the only goal of farmer's scale decision-making.The long-term goal of children's inheritance is another important internal driving factor for farmer's scale decision-making;the profit target of farmers is to obtain economies of scale rather than seeking government subsidies; the funding gap restricts the scale expanding decision of farmers,the existing area has a significant negative impact on the farmers who possess large land scale to keep expanding;and it is predicted that farmers who possess small land scales are more likely to expand their land scales,farmers who possess large land scales are less likely to expand but more likely to shrink them.Therefore,the farmer's land scale decision-making behavior does not deviate from the initial behavior logic of seeking scale returns, and there is no blindness of risk (debt)preference.Farmers who possess large farm scale do not pursue "the bigger the better" decision logic under the negative containment such as the existing land scale.