跨省承包对施工安全状况演变的影响研究

Research on influence of trans-provincial contracting on evolution of construction safety

为研究跨省承包对施工安全的影响,运用空间马尔科夫链探讨区域空间关系在施工安全状况演变过程中的作用。以我国各省份2012--2016年的事故率为依据,将各省份施工安全状况分为5类;针对不同的施工安全状况,分别构建马尔科夫转移矩阵和空间马尔科夫转移矩阵;通过计算以空间滞后为条件的2012--2016年各省份施工安全状况的转移概率,分析各省份受到其周围省份跨省承包商的影响方向和影响程度。研究表明:空间马尔科夫链能更准确地展现区域空间关系在施工安全状况演变过程中的作用;跨省承包对施工安全状况一般和较差的省份有改善作用,但对施工安全状况良好和较好的省份有负面影响;同时,施工安全状况越好,抵御负面影响的能力越强。

The spatial Markov chain method was adopted to explore the role of regional spatial relationships in the evolution of construction safety statues.Firstly,the construction safety statues of each province was classified into 5different clusters by the accident rates in each province from 2012to 2016. Then,traditional Markov chain method and spatial Markov chain method were used to construct a transfer matrix of construction safety statues respectively.Finally,the transferring probabilities of the construction safety statues in provinces of China from 2012to 2016were calculated under the condition of spatial lags, to analyze the influencing directions and extent of contractors from neighboring provinces on provinces with different construction safety statues.Results show that the spatial Markov chain method was more accurate in presenting the effect of regional spatial relationship on the evolution of construction safety statues,that trans-provincial contracting has a positive effect on the provinces with general and poor construction safety, but has a negative impact on the provinces with excellent and good construction safety,and that provinces with better construction safety are more resistible to negative impacts.